Adobe forecasts $275.1B in US online holiday sales, with Cyber Week jumps in everyday goods

Adobe forecast that US shoppers will spend $275.1 billion online from November 1 to December 31, up 6.7% from last year, according to Adobe's announcement. Adobe based the forecast on more than 1 trillion visits to US retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories, per Digital Commerce 360.

The largest Cyber Week increases in the forecast are for everyday goods such as hygiene products and clothing basics, but Adobe measures each one against that category's own September average.

By dollars, electronics and apparel still lead the season, per Adobe:

Of the six categories in the table, grocery, toys and cosmetics have the highest growth from last year (9.5% to 10.3%), but their season totals, from $9.2 billion to $26.1 billion, are lower than electronics ($63.3 billion) and apparel ($51.3 billion).

• The peak days: Adobe expects $47.5 billion (+7.4%) during Cyber Week, the five days from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday. Cyber Monday is forecast at $15.1 billion, Black Friday at $12.9 billion and Thanksgiving Day at $6.9 billion, per Adobe.

• The Cyber Week jumps: compared with each category's September average, Adobe expects personal hygiene up 150%, clothing basics up 210%, baby products up 113%, pet products up 93% and household cleaning up 49%, as Retail Dive also reports. Adobe's explanation is that "many are taking advantage of discounts to stock up on essentials."

• October: Adobe expects $95.8 billion in online sales in October (+8%), including $9.9 billion (+9.2%) during Amazon's Prime Big Deal Days on October 6 to 7.

• Other October sales: Target Circle holds a sale for members on October 6 to 7, and Walmart's Fall Deals sale runs October 5 to 11, per Modern Retail.

Does "stocking up" mean essentials take a bigger share of holiday spend?

Adobe expects many shoppers to use holiday discounts to stock up on essentials, but stocking up does not mean essentials take a bigger share of holiday spend.

The essentials percentages compare each category only with itself. For example, the 150% for personal hygiene means Adobe expects hygiene sales during Cyber Week to be 150% above that category's own September average. The figure does not show how hygiene sales compare with electronics or apparel, which Adobe forecasts at $63.3 billion and $51.3 billion for the season.

What the figures do show is timing: Adobe expects demand for these goods to peak during Cyber Week, when discounts are largest.

What can a Shopify seller do this week?

Adobe says the earlier start to the season is pushing US retailers to manage promotions and inventory for the October spike, per Adobe. Borrowed for a Shopify store, the forecast gives three reference points to check a holiday plan against:

1. Discount depth: Adobe expects discounts to peak at 30% off list price for electronics, 29% for toys and 23% for apparel, with the deepest electronics deals on Cyber Monday and the best toy and apparel deals on Black Friday. When a store plans a Cyber Week discount, comparing it with the peak for its category shows where it sits next to that forecast; whether to match it depends on the store's margin.

2. Restock offers: When a store sells products customers buy again, such as hygiene, pet or cleaning products, a multi-pack or bundle timed for Cyber Week is one offer to test next to gift messaging, because Adobe expects demand in those categories to peak that week. Price the offer so the margin still works at the deal price. A test result shows interest in that offer, not a seasonal trend.

3. Mobile checkout: Adobe expects a record 63% of Thanksgiving online spend to come from mobile devices, compared with 57.4% for the full season. When a store runs a Thanksgiving offer, the offer page and checkout are worth testing on a phone before that day.

Sources

• Adobe, holiday shopping forecast: https://news.adobe.com/news/2026/09/adobe-us-holiday-shopping-season-to-hit-record
• Digital Commerce 360, Adobe forecast method: https://www.digitalcommerce360.com/2026/09/29/adobe-projection-2026-online-holiday-sales-275-billion/
• Retail Dive, Adobe holiday forecast: https://www.retaildive.com/news/holiday-season-ecommerce-sales-growth-2026/831121/
• Modern Retail, October sales at Amazon, Target and Walmart: https://www.modernretail.co/marketing/big-box-briefing-what-to-watch-for-as-amazon-target-and-walmart-host-their-fall-sales/